Today’s thoughts on the latest mess the bullies have delivered ……
Initial media coverage followed a trope as old as time.
Iran cast as the villain.
The United States and Israel riding in as the heroes.
The rest of us cast as the people who need saving.
Every culture tells this story.
The villain threatens the village.
The villagers wait to be rescued.
The hero arrives on the white horse.
War reporting regularly slips into this pattern. The roles feel familiar. We all recognise them.
Every story like this skips the same question.
What outcome is the operation meant to deliver?
The SMH’s Peter Hartcher has already warned where this road can lead, an early military success drifting into what he called a “politico-military muddle”.
Military strategist Mick Ryan points to Iraq and Afghanistan. The bombing opens the story. The political outcome writes the ending.
Remove a leader and the next questions arrive immediately.
Who governs Iran?
What stabilises the region?
What outcome marks success?
Each time Donald Trump speaks about the objective the explanation shifts. Prevention. Regime change. Deterrence.
Strategy begins with a destination.
Without one, events take control.
History contains plenty of examples.
Most end exactly where Peter Hartcher suggested. A politico-military muddle.